Obama Has Said in the Past That He Believes He Could Win Again if He Was Allowed to Run

Obama'south election to the Senate instantly made him the highest-ranking African American officeholder in the country and, along with the excitement generated past his convention speech communication and his books (Dreams from my Father, brought dorsum into print, joined The Audacity of Hope on the bestseller list), placed him high on the roster of prospective Democratic presidential candidates in 2008. After spending a low-profile showtime year in function focusing on solidifying his base in Illinois and traveling abroad to buttress his strange policy credentials as a member of the Senate Strange Relations Committee, Obama spent much of 2006 speaking to audiences around the country and mulling whether to run for president. According to annual National Journal evaluations of senators' legislative voting records, Obama ranked as the outset, tenth, or sixteenth near liberal fellow member of the Senate, depending on the yr.

Obama announced his presidential candidacy on February x, 2007, at a rally in front of the Former State House in Springfield, Illinois, where Abraham Lincoln had given his famous "house divided" voice communication in 1858. Relying heavily on the Internet, the Obama campaign mobilized Obama for America (OFA), a massive grassroots organization of volunteers and donors. (Afterward he was elected, OFA was recast as Organizing for America for the purpose of rousing public support for Obama's legislative initiatives.) With Axelrod once again at the captain, the entrada developed a strategy for winning the Autonomous nomination that relied on assembling the same coalition of blacks and white liberals that had enabled him to succeed in Illinois, with an boosted focus on young voters. Initially, nonetheless, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton opened a strong lead in the polls, even among African American voters and leaders who admired her and her husband, former President Pecker Clinton, and did non think Obama had much of a risk to win. Former Senator John Edwards, the Democrats' vice presidential nominee in 2004, was also widely regarded at the starting time of the entrada as a stronger candidate than the inexperienced Obama.

Drawing on his online base of supporters, Obama initially surprised political pundits by matching Clinton and besting Edwards in entrada fundraising throughout 2007. He became the co-frontrunner in the race by winning the crucial Iowa caucuses on January 3, 2008, defeating both Edwards and Clinton past an 8-percent point margin. Clinton rebounded to win the New Hampshire principal five days afterward, edging out Obama past 3 points and burdensome Edwards by 22 points. In the adjacent important test, Obama opened up a narrow pb in the nomination contest by defeating Clinton handily in the Southward Carolina main, 55 percent to 27 percent, on January 26. Black voters, convinced by the Iowa results that whites would vote for an African American candidate for president, gave him overwhelming back up in Southward Carolina and in subsequent primaries. Edwards finished a afar third in the state where he was born and dropped out of the race on January xxx. Other contenders for the nomination, including Senator Christopher Dodd of Connecticut, Senator Joseph Biden of Delaware, and Governor Neb Richardson of New Mexico, had already dropped out considering of their poor showings in the initial round of primaries and caucuses.

From February through early June, Obama and Clinton battled fiercely through the remaining primaries and caucuses. Overall, Clinton won 20 primaries to Obama'southward xix, including victories in most of the large states, notably California, Texas, New York, New Jersey, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Both candidates were behest to become historic "firsts"—the showtime African American president or the offset woman president.

But Obama had three crucial advantages that enabled him to eke out a narrow victory for the Democratic nomination. First, he was able to dissimilarity his consistent opposition to the state of war in Iraq with Clinton's vote in 2002 to authorize the war earlier later turning against it. Second, although at that place was footling difference between Clinton and Obama on the problems, Obama ran on a theme of alter and Clinton on a theme of feel. In a year when the economy was steadily deteriorating, change was the more appealing theme, especially among Democratic voters. Third, while fighting Clinton in the thirty-nine primaries, Obama did non overlook the seventeen states and territories that, similar Iowa, choose their national convention delegates through caucuses. He strongly out-organized Clinton in those contests, winning fourteen of seventeen caucuses. The delegates Obama won in the caucuses put him over the top. Clinton withdrew from the nominating contest on June vii, 2008.

As difficult-fought every bit his victory was, Obama faced only one serious crunch during the unabridged nomination campaign. In early March, news organizations and websites showed video recordings of some controversial sermons by Obama'due south pastor, Reverend Jeremiah Wright, including one in which Wright blamed the United States for the September xi, 2001, terrorist attacks on New York City and Washington and another in which he accused the federal government of "inventing the HIV virus as a means of genocide against people of color." Obama largely defused the crisis by giving a speech in Philadelphia on March 18, 2008, repudiating Wright's statements and thoughtfully outlining his own views on race relations. But he faced standing difficulties winning white working class votes against Clinton in the primaries, and some doubted that he could win their back up in the general election confronting the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona.

Partly to expand his appeal to working-class whites, and partly to offset his own pocket-sized foreign policy credentials, Obama named Senator Joe Biden of Delaware as his vice presidential running mate on August 22, two days before the opening of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado. Biden had grown upwardly in blue-collar Scranton, Pennsylvania, and during his thirty-six years as a senator from Delaware, had risen upwardly the seniority ladder to become chairman of the Senate Commission on Foreign Relations.

In his credence speech on the last night of the convention, Obama outlined the bug of his general election campaign. Among other things, Obama promised to "cut taxes for 95 percent of all working families," "end our dependence on oil from the Middle Due east," "invest $150 billion over the next decade in affordable, renewable sources of energy," provide "affordable, accessible health care for every single American," close "corporate loopholes and tax havens that don't help America grow," "end this war in Iraq responsibly and finish the fight against al Qaida and the Taliban in Afghanistan," and allow "our gay and lesbian brothers and sisters to visit the person they dearest in a hospital and live lives free of discrimination."

Obama left Denver on Baronial 29 enjoying a pocket-sized lead over McCain in the polls. But on that same day, McCain stole Obama's thunder by selecting Governor Sarah T. Palin of Alaska as his running mate. Palin balanced the Republican ticket in some obvious ways: young rather than old (Palin was forty-four, McCain was lxx-ii), a adult female rather than a man, a governor rather than a senator, and a social conservative rather than a national security bourgeois. At the same fourth dimension, Palin's reform record in Alaska reinforced McCain'south longstanding prototype as a political "bohemian" who bucked the Washington establishment. Her rousing acceptance speech at the convention helped to propel the Republican ticket into a pocket-sized lead over Obama and Biden in early September.

McCain maintained his narrow advantage in the polls until mid-September, when the nation's financial sector, heavily invested in risky mortgage-backed securities, went into a sudden tailspin. In the 3 nationally televised debates betwixt the presidential candidates that took identify from September 26 to October fifteen, Obama'due south calm, confident, and competent demeanor impressed voters who were looking for both reassurance that all would exist well and a change in the nation'due south direction. By eschewing federal campaign funds, Obama was besides able to outspend McCain essentially on media advertizement and grassroots organizing. In addition, Biden impressed most voters as a much more qualified choice for vice president than Palin, whose unfamiliarity with national and international problems was revealed in a series of television interviews. And, much to his credit, McCain refused to revive concerns virtually Obama's long association with Reverend Wright for fear of inflaming racial tensions.

Obama was elected handily on November four, 2008. He defeated McCain by 53 percent to 46 percent in the national pop vote. Leave polls revealed that the two candidates broke even among voters who had participated in the 2004 election. But Obama built his bulk amid outset-fourth dimension voters who surged to the polls in 2008, many of them immature or African American. In the Balloter College, Obama prevailed past a margin of 365 to 173. While carrying all of the traditionally "blue" states in the Northeast, Pacific Coast, and Bully Lakes region, Obama built his bulk by winning previously "red" states such every bit Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Indiana, Ohio, and Colorado.

Election night inspired gracious oratory by both candidates. "If in that location is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a identify where all things are possible," Obama told a cheering crowd of supporters, "who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time, who yet questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer." Conceding defeat, McCain said, "This is a historic election, and I recognize the significance it has for African Americans and the special pride that must be theirs this night. We both realize that we have come a long way from the injustices that one time stained our nation'south reputation."

Midterm Ballot of 2010

From the very start of Obama'south tenure equally president, congressional Republicans pursued a strategy of consistent, strenuous opposition to almost of his legislative initiatives. Politically, the strategy diameter fruit in the 2010 midterm elections. As Democratic Senator Al Franken of Minnesota said, "Their bumper sticker has one word: 'No.' Our bumper sticker has way too many words. And it says: 'Continued on the side by side bumper sticker.'"

Looking at the stubbornly high unemployment charge per unit Obama inherited on taking office, many voters refused to accept the president's argument that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Deed had kept joblessness from ascent even higher. Voters who were satisfied with their health insurance continued to worry that Obama'due south plan for health care reform would increase the cost and reduce the quality of medical care. The new grassroots bourgeois Tea Political party movement fueled a surge in turnout amid Republican voters in 2010 even as participation amid Obama'south core constituencies in 2008—young and African American voters—declined. On election solar day, the Republicans gained 6 seats in the Senate, reducing the Democrats' majority in that bedroom from 18 (59 to 41) to six (53 to 47). The GOP added 63 seats in the Firm of Representatives, enough to gain control of the Firm by a 242 to 193 majority in the 112th Congress.

The certainty that divided regime—a Republican House and a Democratic Senate and president—would prevail for the balance of Obama's kickoff term persuaded the president and the leaders of both parties to human activity on a variety of of import issues during the mail-2010 ballot "lame duck" session of Congress. With George W. Bush'southward 2001 and 2003 tax cuts set to elapse on December 31, 2010, Obama put aside his opposition to continuing them for families with more than $250,000 in annual income and agreed to permit congressional Republicans to keep the cuts in identify. In return, the GOP accepted President Obama's proposal to extend unemployment benefits for jobless workers for a longer catamenia, and both parties embraced a one-yr reduction in social security taxes for anybody who pays them.

In addition, Congress and the president agreed to cancel President Pecker Clinton'due south "don't ask, don't tell" policy preventing openly gay and lesbian people from serving in the military. Republicans feared that federal courts were well-nigh to guild immediate integration of homosexuals into the armed services. General Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Articulation Chiefs of Staff, persuaded them that the military was prepared to accept the change if allowed to implement it gradually. The lame duck session also saw the Senate ratify the New START nuclear artillery reduction treaty between the United states of america and Russia by a 71 to 26 vote.

The 2012 Election

President Obama entered the 2012 election twelvemonth with job blessing ratings that were dangerously depression (roughly 40 pct) and an unemployment charge per unit that was dangerously high (more than eight percent) for an incumbent seeking reelection. But, like Bill Clinton in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2004, Obama benefited enormously from not having to fight for his party'due south nomination. Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980, and George Bush in 1992 had to wage such battles, and each of them was defeated by his general election opponent in Nov. In dissimilarity, Obama was able to use the kickoff viii months of 2012 to raise money, rebuild his campaign arrangement, develop lines of attack on his likely Republican opponents, and launch his full general election entrada from a united, enthusiastic Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, North Caroline, in September 2012. Post-obit the blueprint of reelection-seeking presidents since the 1950s, Obama chose Vice President Biden to run with him for a second term.

While Obama was uniting his political party for the fall, the Republicans were waging a fierce intraparty battle to choose their nominee. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney won the nomination, simply was subjected to severe attacks by his Republican rivals. For example, erstwhile Firm Speaker Newt Gingrich accused Romney of having "looted" companies during his career as a business consultant and branded him a "vulture capitalist." Governor Rick Perry of Texas said that Romney had gotten rich past "sticking it to someone else." Quondam Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, Representative Michelle Bachman of Minnesota, and man of affairs Herman Cain were among the other Republican contenders who battered Romney relentlessly for being insufficiently conservative. Romney won the nomination and placated conservatives by choosing the chair of the House Budget Committee, Representative Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, every bit his vice presidential running mate in advance of the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida. Just only and then was he able to focus on raising coin for the general election, move toward the more than popular political center, and direct his campaign toward defeating Obama.

The Supreme Court'south 2010 decision in the case of Citizens United five. Federal Election Commission opened the floodgates to corporations, unions, and wealthy individuals to spend massive amounts of coin in an effort to elect either Obama or Romney, also every bit in the congressional elections. By year'south end, about $1 billion was spent past or on behalf of each of the ii nominees for president, both of whom eschewed federal financing and the spending limits that accompanied that financing.

In a closely divided state, both Romney and Obama counted on winning near twenty states and fought the entrada in well-nigh x "battleground" states. Some of them were large such as Florida and Ohio, and some of them were pocket-size such equally New Hampshire and Iowa, but all of them were neither consistently "scarlet" nor consistently "blue." Romney'due south best moment came in the first presidential argue, in which he came across as politically moderate and personally engaging. Obama, like many incumbents, turned in a rusty and therefore ineffective functioning. But, moderated by his weak showing, Obama came back strongly in the second and tertiary debates and regained his atomic number 82 over Romney.

Toward the end of the campaign, the unemployment rate finally dipped below 8 percent, reinforcing Obama'due south merits that his economic policies had placed the nation on the road to prosperity. He besides benefited from his response to Hurricane Sandy, a "super tempest" that struck the Northeast in late Oct. Obama toured the devastated New Jersey shore with the state's Republican governor, Chris Christie, who praised the president for "springing into action immediately." In the ballot day exit poll, 15 percent of voters said that Obama'south reaction to the hurricane was the well-nigh important factor in their decision, and 73 percentage of them voted for the president.

Obama defeated Romney by 51 percent to 47 per centum in the national pop vote and by 332 to 206 in the electoral vote. His margin of victory was down slightly from 2008, making him the first president since Woodrow Wilson to be reelected past a smaller majority than in his outset election. Too disappointing to Obama, the House of Representatives remained in Republican control, by a margin to 234 to 201. Obama—and Democrats more often than not—took heart from the political party'southward success in the Senate elections. Even though 20-three of their seats were on the ballot in 2012 compared with only ten for the Republicans, the Democrats actually gained ii seats in the election, raising their bulk in the upper chamber to 55 to 45. Notwithstanding more important for the long term, Obama ran best among those groups in the electorate that were growing nearly rapidly: immature people, single people, nonreligious people, Latinos, and Asian Americans.

Despite his victories, Obama began his second term with a very limited mandate. His campaign'south ane-give-and-take theme was content-gratuitous—Frontwards!—and most of his speeches and commercials during the election were devoted to violent downward Romney rather than offering a policy agenda for the second term. The one specific issue Obama did stress on the entrada trail—his continuing desire to raise taxes on wealthy Americans—bore fruit one calendar month after the ballot, when Congress voted to heighten the marginal income tax rate from 35.0 percent to 39.half dozen percent on households with annual incomes above $450,000. But during the campaign, he deemphasized other issues that were important to him but politically risky, including immigration reform, climate change, and gun control.

Midterm Ballot of 2014

The 2014 midterm ballot repeated the pattern of Obama's first term: success in the presidential election followed by defeat two years after at midterm. Equally in 2010, voter turnout was considerably lower in 2014 than it had been two years previously: 34 percent in 2014 (the everyman in a national election since 1942) compared with 58 percent in 2012. Because midterm electorates tend to have a college concentration of the older and more conservative white voters who tend to favor Republican candidates, the Democrats were probable to endure. Calculation to their disadvantage in the Senate elections was that Democrats held 21 of 36 seats on the ballot in 2014, vii of them in states that Obama had lost to Romney.

Republicans gained nine seats in the Senate elections, the largest gain for any party since 1980, and took away control of the chamber from the Democrats with a 54-46 bulk. In elections to the House of Representatives, the GOP added 13 seats to their bulk, increasing it to 247-188, the party'south largest House majority since 1928. The Republicans' success extended to elections for state role. They added two to their ranks of governors, leaving them in control of the executive in 31 states. They too won majorities in ten additional state legislative chambers, giving them command of 67 of 99. These showings, besides, were the GOP'south best since 1928.

The 2014 midterm ballot guaranteed that Obama spent the final 2 years of his presidency with a Republican Congress. According to Politico, on the morning after the ballot "he told his staff to have an hour to mope, then get back to work." Signaling his intention going forward to rely strongly on his executive dominance rather than seek legislation from Congress, he added: "We still run the largest organisation on the planet, with the largest capacity to exercise adept."

Postscript on the 2016 Election

Although the 22nd Amendment barred Obama from seeking a third term as president in 2016, he was intensely interested in seeing a Democrat succeed him, especially considering all of the contenders for the Republican presidential nomination promised to seek the repeal of major parts of his legislative legacy if one of them was elected. Obama did not endorse either of the leading candidates for the Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders, but he conspicuously favored Clinton equally the most electable and privately discouraged Vice President Biden from entering the contest for fear of dividing his supporters betwixt Biden and Clinton.

In the fall 2016 entrada, Obama campaigned ardently in multiple battleground states for Clinton and against the Republican nominee, Donald J. Trump, whom he described as "temperamentally unfit to be president." Of Clinton, Obama alleged, "There has never been any man or woman more qualified for this office than Hillary Clinton." 2 days subsequently Donald Trump won the election, notwithstanding, Obama met with him at the White Business firm publicly told him, "Nosotros now are going to desire to practice everything nosotros can to help you succeed because if you succeed, then the country succeeds."

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Source: https://millercenter.org/president/obama/campaigns-and-elections

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